Off-season demand suppresses price elasticity; SHFE tin awaits substantial ore release from Myanmar [SMM tin futures brief comment]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closing price: 263,960 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.09%, with an intraday amplitude of 1.75% (ranging from 261,510 to 266,150 yuan/mt).

Daily chart characteristics: Under pressure in the morning session, it rebounded slightly in the afternoon supported by low LME inventory, but still remained under pressure at the key resistance level of 265,000 yuan/mt.

LME tin contract: Currently quoted at $33,295/mt, up by 0.11%. Although Myanmar's Wa State has resumed the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production is not expected until Q4 2025. Currently, the raw material inventory turnover days of Yunnan smelters are less than 25 days, and some enterprises are maintaining production cuts (operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi is 54.07%).

Spot premiums: Yunnan Tin Group has spot premiums of 800–1,200 yuan/mt against the 08 contract, but downstream buyers are only restocking small orders at low prices, and the overall market is sluggish.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate cut: The US core CPI in June rose by 2.9% YoY, lower than expected, and the market is betting on an interest rate cut in September. Expectations for loose liquidity are boosting metal valuations.

Chip export relaxation: The US has approved the export of Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips to China, which is beneficial for tin demand in the semiconductor industry chain in the medium and long-term.

For the SN2508 contract, focus on the oscillation range of 260,000–268,000 yuan/mt. If it breaks above 265,000 yuan/mt, light short positions can be tested.

Risk warnings: Pay close attention to the progress of mine resumption in the DRC, US non-farm payrolls data, and the pace of domestic policies to stabilize the economy.